Good. I hope Microsoft and the rest lose all of their financial investment and it chaps their asses harder than riding bareback on a saddle, and it crashes and burns.
I'll bring marshmallows. AI was presented on a garbage can lid, and its owners literally stole millions of properties to feed their beast. Fuck them.
On the surface, a query is modest to run: A frontier model like GPT-4 costs around a penny to 5c for the compute-power to have a conversational session. The smaller models are about a tenth of that. That's technically fundable with advertising via user-pays, much as a Google search can be. The people buying stuff cross-fund the people not buying stuff.
The problem is: an effective LLM has to retrain every year or two, just to stay competitive. For 2025, retraining is estimated to runto $200M+ just for compute power -- then there's data curation and human feedback. With 800M ChatGPT users, that's still $250,000 per user every 12-18 months.
And that just keeps the lights on. It doesn't pay the investors back.
My conclusion? Retail 'freemium' LLM usage isn't viably priced. The big LLMs need to be wholesalers, not retailers and in five years' time I think there'll be fewer. There are also whole sections of the industry missing -- much like what happened when the Internet first went commercial.
Meanwhile, the industries who could make it retail are looking at this thing, wondering how to bite it. The security issues are pretty heinous, and are still being explored. ToxSec does a great job reporting on them. You might like his style: https://substack.com/@toxsec
The United States will be completely destroyed in five, yes 5 years. Bankrupt and in the throes of a civil war at home and several wars of attrition abroad. The AI data centers will be destroyed here in the process, ashes to rubble. The entire world will look at us and shun this bullshit tech, citing they don't want to fall into the same pit of greed. People like Elon Musk, if his bitch ass hasn't offed himself, will be arrested and thrown into jail, alongside all the tech bros in countries that got some sense.
So I'll patiently wait for the collapse of this bullshit.
> The United States will be completely destroyed in five, yes 5 years.
I hope not, Tia. The collapse of civil infrastructure hurts the most vulnerable first and worst.
I recognise the cultural betrayal behind your thoughts, but I also think we're looking at something different: a global economy struggling with losing its manufacturing hegemony, meets a legacy democracy struggling to remain viable in changing social infrastructure. Those are tectonic forces but I think the Union has demonstrated capability to survive them.
Here I'm not appealing to Founding Ideals so much as to the resilience in Federation itself, and its domestic economy.
What I also think: your moral outrage is earned, but it's only part of what you bring. Your sensitivity, practicality and resilience are in the mix too. That is never not needed. I have seen such capacities deliver a lot over time.
Oh, I hope it is. Down to fucking ashes and dust. The civil infrastructure HAS collapsed here. We can’t even get high speed trails, still riding on rails the Chinese built in the late 1800!. Bridges are falling, roads are crumbling (see I-40) and I-77). This place deserves EXACTLY what it gets and I cannot wait to see it tumble off the cliff and finally shatter.
And half the country is there with me in those thoughts while the other half is fighting to bring back Jim Crow. Burn the whole bitch down.
Australia suffers 10-15 major natural disasters per year, Tia. Frequency, scale and severity are all increasing at about 5-7% compound annual growth (it'd be nice if your savings saw that interest.)
With only 28M of us, we live with such misery constantly, help each other constantly, recover from it constantly. I wouldn't wish destruction of social infrastructure on anyone and especially not parents with young kids, the elderly with no place to go, the disabled, families who have lived in the same communities for generations, people who gave up everything elsewhere to emigrate, small businesses who treat staff like family. In my view, however bad things are; improving it is better than leveling it because improving it preserves community.
Get anyone frustrated enough and they can want destruction. It's appealing when they think it'll be their hand doing it. But history says it feeds on itself. What starts off as righteous becomes corrupt the moment it's unaccountable, which is early -- ask the French how their Revolution went.
But it's not my jurisdiction. I can't tell you not to want it. I can implore you not to conflate righteous anger with righteousness action.
33 states are about to get hit with a freak winter storm this weekend, my state included. It’s going to be -40 below windchill tomorrow. We do not help each other, we do not recover instantly. The infrastructure here is already collapsing and after this storm it will be worse. Nobody cares what your situation here is - look who is running the place.
Good. I hope Microsoft and the rest lose all of their financial investment and it chaps their asses harder than riding bareback on a saddle, and it crashes and burns.
I'll bring marshmallows. AI was presented on a garbage can lid, and its owners literally stole millions of properties to feed their beast. Fuck them.
I think OpenAI is out of runway, Tia.
On the surface, a query is modest to run: A frontier model like GPT-4 costs around a penny to 5c for the compute-power to have a conversational session. The smaller models are about a tenth of that. That's technically fundable with advertising via user-pays, much as a Google search can be. The people buying stuff cross-fund the people not buying stuff.
The problem is: an effective LLM has to retrain every year or two, just to stay competitive. For 2025, retraining is estimated to runto $200M+ just for compute power -- then there's data curation and human feedback. With 800M ChatGPT users, that's still $250,000 per user every 12-18 months.
And that just keeps the lights on. It doesn't pay the investors back.
My conclusion? Retail 'freemium' LLM usage isn't viably priced. The big LLMs need to be wholesalers, not retailers and in five years' time I think there'll be fewer. There are also whole sections of the industry missing -- much like what happened when the Internet first went commercial.
Meanwhile, the industries who could make it retail are looking at this thing, wondering how to bite it. The security issues are pretty heinous, and are still being explored. ToxSec does a great job reporting on them. You might like his style: https://substack.com/@toxsec
The United States will be completely destroyed in five, yes 5 years. Bankrupt and in the throes of a civil war at home and several wars of attrition abroad. The AI data centers will be destroyed here in the process, ashes to rubble. The entire world will look at us and shun this bullshit tech, citing they don't want to fall into the same pit of greed. People like Elon Musk, if his bitch ass hasn't offed himself, will be arrested and thrown into jail, alongside all the tech bros in countries that got some sense.
So I'll patiently wait for the collapse of this bullshit.
> The United States will be completely destroyed in five, yes 5 years.
I hope not, Tia. The collapse of civil infrastructure hurts the most vulnerable first and worst.
I recognise the cultural betrayal behind your thoughts, but I also think we're looking at something different: a global economy struggling with losing its manufacturing hegemony, meets a legacy democracy struggling to remain viable in changing social infrastructure. Those are tectonic forces but I think the Union has demonstrated capability to survive them.
Here I'm not appealing to Founding Ideals so much as to the resilience in Federation itself, and its domestic economy.
What I also think: your moral outrage is earned, but it's only part of what you bring. Your sensitivity, practicality and resilience are in the mix too. That is never not needed. I have seen such capacities deliver a lot over time.
Oh, I hope it is. Down to fucking ashes and dust. The civil infrastructure HAS collapsed here. We can’t even get high speed trails, still riding on rails the Chinese built in the late 1800!. Bridges are falling, roads are crumbling (see I-40) and I-77). This place deserves EXACTLY what it gets and I cannot wait to see it tumble off the cliff and finally shatter.
And half the country is there with me in those thoughts while the other half is fighting to bring back Jim Crow. Burn the whole bitch down.
Australia suffers 10-15 major natural disasters per year, Tia. Frequency, scale and severity are all increasing at about 5-7% compound annual growth (it'd be nice if your savings saw that interest.)
With only 28M of us, we live with such misery constantly, help each other constantly, recover from it constantly. I wouldn't wish destruction of social infrastructure on anyone and especially not parents with young kids, the elderly with no place to go, the disabled, families who have lived in the same communities for generations, people who gave up everything elsewhere to emigrate, small businesses who treat staff like family. In my view, however bad things are; improving it is better than leveling it because improving it preserves community.
Get anyone frustrated enough and they can want destruction. It's appealing when they think it'll be their hand doing it. But history says it feeds on itself. What starts off as righteous becomes corrupt the moment it's unaccountable, which is early -- ask the French how their Revolution went.
But it's not my jurisdiction. I can't tell you not to want it. I can implore you not to conflate righteous anger with righteousness action.
33 states are about to get hit with a freak winter storm this weekend, my state included. It’s going to be -40 below windchill tomorrow. We do not help each other, we do not recover instantly. The infrastructure here is already collapsing and after this storm it will be worse. Nobody cares what your situation here is - look who is running the place.
This place is done.